Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, El Paso, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in most of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas.

A cold front is currently positioned in the western third of the state extending from the Panhandle down through the Permian Basin and is expected to create gusty winds this afternoon and evening in central/eastern New Mexico as well as the Panhandle, Permian Basin, and Far West regions. Suspended dust kicked up the previous day combined with additional areas of patchy blowing dust could result in periods of elevated fine particulate matter across these regions. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range as well.

Higher density smoke and/or aerosols are forecast to gradually advect across most of the eastern two thirds of Texas as seasonal burnings and industrial activity rages on in southern Mexico, Central America, and the Bay of Campeche. With copious amounts of moisture likely across most of the areas affected areas, elevated fine particulate matter concentrations are likely to become widespread. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Houston areas, the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Waco-Killeen areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Bryan-College Station and Tyler-Longview areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, El Paso, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas.

A secondary trough will make it to the Four Corners region by around midday Saturday, sustaining windy conditions across most of New Mexico and portions of the western third of Texas. Dry soils could provide perfect conditions for several areas of blowing dust, with transported dust out of New Mexico possibly combining with localized sources in the Panhandle, Permian Basin, and Far West regions - keeping fine particulate matter elevated. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

The cold front will gradually lift northward as the trough moves out of the area, meaning southerly winds will continue to transport moisture and smoke/aerosols into the eastern two thirds of the state. High relative humidity juxtaposed with persistent light to moderate density smoke could keep fine particulate matter elevated in most areas, however higher density smoke is forecast to affect the Deep South and coastal bend. The daily PM2.5 AQI could remain in the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Corpus Christi areas, the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Waco Killeen areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Tyler-Longview area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso, Big Bend, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas.

The aforementioned front will slowly traverse eastward Sunday as moisture remains abundant in the eastern half of Texas. While advection of light to moderate residual smoke out of Mexico will likely continue, breezy winds and scattered showers/thunderstorms in the Central, North Central and Northeast regions could provide pollutant dispersion, possibly keeping PM2.5 concentrations somewhat tempered at times. Additionally, model guidance continues to suggest the Deep South and portions of the coastal bend could see higher density smoke compared to the rest of the affected areas. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Tyler-Longview areas.

Stable atmospheric conditions combined with lingering surface pollutants from the previous day in Far West could keep the daily PM2.5 AQI in the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Otherwise and elsewhere across the state, moderate winds, scattered precipitation, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range for most areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Not much expected to change as advection of light to moderate residual smoke (with areas of higher density smoke in the southernmost regions) holds steady due to persistent seasonal burnings and industrial activity in southern Mexico and Central America. Very high relative humidity values will also persist as southerly winds transport large amounts of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Laredo areas, the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Corpus Christi, Houston, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas, and the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Tyler-Longview areas.

Light to moderate winds and limited vertical mixing in Far West could keep the daily PM2.5 AQI in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Otherwise and elsewhere across the state, moderate winds, scattered precipitation, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range for most areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend area.

A low-pressure system is forecast to remain mostly stagnant in northern New Mexico near the TX-OK panhandles and will keep southerly winds pumping moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern two thirds of the state. Meanwhile, residual smoke will continue to affect most of the same areas with light smoke spreading into the Permian Basin and possibly southern Panhandle, keeping fine particulate levels elevated in most of the affected areas. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to remain in the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Houston areas, the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Otherwise and elsewhere across the state, moderate winds, scattered precipitation, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range for most areas.