Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso and Midland-Odessa areas; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Houston areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin and San Antonio areas.

Light daytime winds are forecast to elevate urban fine particulate background levels over portions of Far West Texas and raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area. The daily PM10 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Southerly winds will continue advecting moisture and elevated relative humidity levels out of the Gulf and moderate to high density residual smoke from seasonal fire activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula over the eastern two-thirds of Texas, with the highest concentrations extending from Deep South Texas, along the southern coastal bend of Texas, to over portions of Southeast Texas. Model guidance indicates that the density of the smoke may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area; the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin and San Antonio areas; and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI may also reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Houston areas the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin and San Antonio areas as well.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range or possibly higher in parts of the Midland-Odessa area; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Lubbock areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo and Houston areas.

Fine urban particulate levels owing to limited dispersion from light winds could increase the daily PM2.5 AQI to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area. The daily PM10 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well. Meanwhile, a cold front will push through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles from the north. Gusty conditions associated with this frontal boundary may generate patchy blowing dust through portions of the Texas Panhandle, however the intensity and duration of any possible suspended dust are not expected to be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI beyond the "Good" range throughout the majority of the region, which includes the Amarillo and Lubbock areas.

Depending on the amount of seasonal burning activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula, southerly winds will continue transporting elevated relative humidity levels out of the Gulf as well as moderate to high density residual smoke over the eastern two-thirds of Texas. Newer model guidance indicates that the density and coverage of the residual smoke may not be as dense as previously forecast and may raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area; to the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; and to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI may also reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and San Antonio areas as well.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend and Midland-Odessa areas.

Light morning winds may limit atmospheric mixing and dispersion of urban fine particulate matter long enough at the surface in portions of Far West Texas to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Depending on the density and coverage of moderate to high density residual smoke from possible ongoing seasonal burning activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula, southerly winds are forecast to continue transporting elevated relative humidity levels out of the Gulf as well as residual smoke over Texas from Del Rio to Joaquin. Lighter amounts of residual smoke may linger over North Central and Northeast Texas as the cold front progresses southward to about Central Texas, bringing northerly winds. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur and Bryan-College Station areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI may also reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Corpus Christi, Houston, and San Antonio areas as well.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend and Midland-Odessa areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light morning winds over portions of Far West Texas could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area. The daily PM10 AQI may reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Model guidance suggests that the residual smoke from seasonal burning activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula may continue to linger at varying intensities across the majority of the state with the exception of Far West Texas and the Upper Texas Panhandle, however weaken and disperse as well. As persistent southerly winds are expected to continue advecting elevated relative humidity levels across the southern half of the state, ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Scattered rain showers associated with the frontal boundary may help wash-out some of the fine particulate matter as well. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.